Keeneland September Book 1

Though Book 1 is being compressed from four days into three–so Thursday instead of Friday will be the dark day–the overall composition of Keeneland's September Yearling Sale will not really change very much from last year. The Book 1 sessions will start at 11 a.m. this year instead of noon, and instead of cataloguing 762 horses over four days (an average of 190 per day), this year 724 yearlings–a drop of 5%–are catalogued over three days (an average of 241 per day). Nine days came after Book 1 last year (3,419 catalogued), and nine days will come after Book 1 this year (3,440 catalogued, a gain of 21 horses (+0.6%). The overall sale sees 4,164 yearlings catalogued over 12 days this year, a drop of 17 horses (-0.4%) from the 4,181 catalogued over 13 days for the 2014 sale. Book 1 grossed $142,153,000 last year, an average of $300,535 for the 473 yearlings sold.

Only 74 individual sires had yearlings catalogued to Book 1 last year, an average of over 10 per stallion. This year 83 sires have yearlings catalogued, which averages out a little below nine per sire; however, there are 14 sires with 20 or more catalogued in Book 1, the same number as last year. Reflecting an emphasis on proven sires, none of the 14 sires with 20+ catalogued in Book 1 last year had their first foals later than 2008; this year WinStar's first-crop sire Bodemeister, with 26 catalogued, is the only sire with 20+ catalogued with first foals later than 2008. But six younger sires have between 10-20 catalogued in Book 1 this year: Lane's End first-year yearling sire Union Rags (16); third-crop sires (fourth crop of yearlings) Pioneerof the Nile (WinStar, 14 in Book 1) and, surprisingly, Coolmore's Australian import Fastnet Rock (10); second-crop (are 2-year-olds, so third-crop yearling) sires Quality Road (Lane's End, 13) and Claiborne sire Blame (10); and the F2009 sire, Hard Spun (Darley Jonabell, 11) are other post-F2008 sires with 10+ catalogued in Book 1.

Last year, Gainesway sire Tapit, on his way to his first sire championship, had more yearlings (47) in Book 1 than any other sire; he repeats the dose this year, with 48 catalogued in Book 1. They were bred on a $125,000 stud fee in 2013, so commercial breeders will hit some big home runs if he ends up around last year's $611,125 yearling average; his nine yearlings sold so far this year have averaged $952,466. It is all about the money, yet it's not ALL about the money: Tapit, by Pulpit, by A.P. Indy, by Seattle Slew, by Bold Reasoning, by Boldnesian, by Bold Ruler, has the opportunity to keep this line alive and flourishing–in North America, anyway. So when you sign that ticket for that Tapit yearling, Ron Winchell, David Fiske, and Antony Beck especially are hoping you're not just buying a racing prospect, but a potential top-class breeding prospect too. Tapit is at the point where he's not just a top sire, but the extra you pay for one of them is in the hope, consciously or unconsciously, of being part of an unfolding legacy. No extra pressure then, Trappe Shot and Tapizar.

WinStar sires take the next two spots: the venerable Distorted Humor has 40 yearlings from his 15th crop catalogued; and Speightstown (37), like Darley's Medaglia d'Oro (36), in fourth by number catalogued in Book 1, and Tapit all had their first foals 2006 so this year have their ninth crops of yearlings. WinStar in fact is represented by five of the 14 sires with 20+ catalogued in Book 1, the other three being Bodemeister (26), from his first crop of yearlings; Harlan's Holiday (25), represented by his final crop of yearlings; and Tiznow (21), also now in the veteran stage with his 12th crop of yearlings catalogued. The A.P. Indy line, headlined by Tapit, also has two sons of his among the fourteen, Spendthrift's Malibu Moon (33) and Darley's Bernardini (30). Claiborne's War Front has 31 catalogued in Book 1 this year (a 63% increase over 19 last year); Ashford's Giant's Causeway has 29. Ramsey Farm's Kitten's Joy has 26 in Book 1, Lane's End's Smart Strike has 25, and Taylor Made's deceased Unbridled's Song in has 20 catalogued from his final crop of yearlings. Click here to see the complete Instatistics list of 2015 yearling averages by sire.

SECOND-CROP SIRES

The designation 'second-crop sires' means they have two crops of racing age, meaning their oldest foals are now 3-year-olds, and their third crops are yearlings this year. This is mostly a 'second-week' project; characteristically few sires with their first 3-year-olds, bar a horse like Sea The Stars last year, have many from their third crops selling in the Book 1's, and that is the case at Keeneland September this year; fewer than 5% of the yearlings in Book 1 are by current second-crop sires. The only ones with more than three in Book 1 are last year's Leading Freshman Sire, Lane's End's Quality Road (13), and Claiborne's Blame (10). There will be plenty by all of the big names after Book 1–well over 300, I should think.

The big mover among second-crop sires in the last month has been WinStar's Super Saver (one in Book 1, 40 later). Embellish the Lace's win over Munnings's fellow second-crop sire representative I'm A Chatterbox in the GI Alabama S. last weekend made him the only second-crop sire with two Grade I winners (Competitive Edge having won the GI Hopeful S. last year, when Super Saver was #2 Freshman Sire in North America). I Spent It had won the GII Saratoga Special as well for Super Saver and owners Alex and JoAnn Lieblong last year, and last month High Dollar Woman won the GII Indiana Oaks, another Lieblong runner. There are lots of ways to describe class, but having four Grade I or Grade II winners in a sire's first crop is a pretty strong statement. Interestingly, three of the four–Embellish the Lace, High Dollar Woman, and I Spent It–had been bought as yearlings or 2-year-olds by the Lieblongs, for a total of $1,595,000. That's a big ticket, but they've been proved right.

On the TDN cumulative second-crop sire list (click here), the current top five are North American sires, followed by the European top two, Haras de Bonneval's Siyouni and Ballylinch Stud's Lope De Vega. Ashford's duo of Lookin At Lucky ($4.09m) and Munnings ($3.83m) are the current one-two, followed by Super Saver ($3.60m), Quality Road ($3.41m), and Airdrie's Majesticperfection ($2.95m). Ironically, Lookin At Lucky and Munnings are the only two of those without a Grade I winner so far, but Lookin At Lucky's Madeforlucky is a dual Grade II winner, and the Munnings filly I'm A Chatterbox won the GII Fair Grounds Oaks, was controversially disqualified from a Grade I win in the CCA Oaks, and thus has now placed in three Grade I races. Quality Road sired last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hootenanny, and Majesticperfection has sired the dual 2015 Grade I winner, Lovely Maria.